Netherlands Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear Review 2026

Growth exceeds expectations, despite geopolitical tensions

RECAP H1 2026

2026 growth exceeds January forecast

The Dutch economy grows by 1.2% in 2026, exceeding the 0.8% projected in the January forecast and following growth of 1.4% in 2025. That puts the Netherlands ahead of the eurozone (0.8%). Growth is underpinned by domestic consumption and government investment in defense, infrastructure, and the energy transition. Households have benefited from real wage growth, but that tailwind is fading: new collective labor agreements for 2026 are coming in at around 3.2%, down from 3.8% in 2025, and roughly in line with inflation of approximately 3%.

On the geopolitical front, the conflict around Iran weighed on sentiment in the spring; confidence recovered afterward. The conflict has not been resolved, however. A further escalation could push energy prices higher, driving up inflation and delaying interest rate cuts. CBRE therefore assumes a moderately positive base scenario with downside risks.

Tight labor market accelerates automation

Labor market pressure eased in the second quarter of 2026, but the market remains structurally tight. Wage levels stay elevated even as wage growth cools to around the inflation rate. With staff both scarce and expensive, companies are choosing technology over additional headcount. Real estate feels this directly: demand for automated distribution centers is growing, and office occupiers are increasingly seeking AI-ready space.

Physical constraints unchanged

Limited nitrogen capacity and constraints on grid connectivity continue to hold back construction and industry, keeping permitting slow. For real estate, this cuts both ways: new development remains difficult to get off the ground, while the limited pipeline of new projects is simultaneously supporting rental growth in the existing stock.

FORECAST H2 2026

Domestic demand remains the primary growth driver, but the acceleration is shifting further out. The 2027 forecast has been revised down from 1.6% to 1.4%, while 2028 has been revised up from 1.8% to 2.0% (page 3). Across the three-year period, the overall growth picture is broadly unchanged. Whether that acceleration materializes depends on two conditions: defense and infrastructure spending must translate into real economic activity, and interest rates must create room from 2027 onward. Two challenges stand out: on the export side, trade barriers and weak German industry are acting as a drag, while domestically, grid capacity is a hard constraint on new construction and automation. For real estate, inflation feeds through primarily via interest rates, which this year moved in the opposite direction from what was anticipated.

Trend reversal: ECB raises rates in June

RECAP H1 2026

Inflation peaked in May

Inflation peaked at 3.5% in May, fell to 2.9% in June, and rose again to 3.1% in July as energy prices pushed higher. CBRE expects inflation of approximately 3% for 2026, easing to 2.7% in 2027 and around 2.4% in 2028. A return to 2% is a matter of years, and the gap with the eurozone average (p. 4) remains small. Services inflation meanwhile stays elevated on the back of wage growth, which in turn continues to support household purchasing power.

Interest rate path reversed in 2026

At the start of this year, CBRE anticipated further ECB rate cuts and declining capital market rates, resulting in modestly lower initial yields. The opposite occurred: persistent inflation left the ECB with no room to ease.

In June, the first rate hike since 2023 followed, by 25 basis points. The Dutch 10-year rate is expected to come in at approximately 3.2% for 2026; 40 basis points above the earlier forecast. With public debt at around 48% of GDP, compared with nearly 89% across the eurozone, the Netherlands' fiscal position remains strong and the spread is limited.

FORECAST H2 2026

Interest rate path dependent on geopolitics

Following the June hike and the pause in July, markets are pricing in one final move in September. CBRE likewise expects one additional upward step in 2026. From mid-2027 onward, room for cuts is expected to emerge, with the Dutch government bond yield anticipated to remain around 3.2% to 3.3%. Throughput via the Strait of Hormuz is the determining factor for oil prices: if throughput declines, oil prices rise further and the first rate cut is pushed back.

Predictable financing market supports the investment market

A visible ceiling on the rate path is a workable scenario for investors: it is precisely that clarity which enables transactions. With a risk-free return of approximately 3.2%, however, there is no room for initial yields to compress.

That leaves a spread of around 30 basis points on residential investments. Returns therefore come from rental income, rental growth, and optimization of existing stock. Indexation protects rental income against inflation. All in all, financing remains available and the market stays liquid.

Strong recovery in the investment market in the first half of 2026

RECAP H1 2026

Strongest first half since 2022

Investment volume in the Netherlands reached €7 billion in the first half of 2026. That is 36% more compared to the same period in 2025 and nearly 5% above the 10-year average for the first six months (€6.6 billion). Europe recorded growth of 10% over the same period, meaning the Netherlands is outpacing the rest of the continent by a clear margin.

The recovery was broad-based and not confined to a single sector. With the exception of the hotel market, volume grew across the board, while transaction count rose from 388 to 520. Offices (+66%), residential (+43%), and retail (+30%) all posted substantial gains.

A notable outlier was healthcare real estate, which came in at €847 million, well above first-half levels in prior years, driven largely by Aedifica's acquisition of an 80% stake in Cofinimmo's Dutch healthcare portfolio.

Recovery progressing twice as fast post-2008

Seventeen quarters after the last peak, investment volume stands at 77% of that level. At the same point after 2008, that figure was a good deal lower and recovery took longer. The trough was also shallower than in the previous cycle. The full recovery timeline can be found on page 8 of the pdf.

Financing is a positive signal. Some 72% of lenders in the European Lender Intentions Survey intend to extend more new loans this year. Net initial yields also remained largely stable in the first half of 2026, despite interest rate shocks. Where the eurozone crisis and sharply lower loan-to-value (LTV) ratios held back recovery after 2008, financing is now acting as a catalyst instead.

Limited supply and structural demand are additionally driving rental growth across most sectors. As in Europe more broadly, returns are therefore coming from rental income and rental growth rather than from compressing initial yields.

FORECAST H2 2026

Recovery continues into the second half

Persistent scarcity in occupier markets keeps conditions for prime real estate competitive. Liquidity is increasing on the back of a broader pool of buyers, and sentiment around office financing is improving markedly. Based on these factors, CBRE expects a pickup in transaction activity in the Netherlands in the second half of this year.

The principal risks lie outside the real estate market, in the geopolitical situation and the interest rate path. Given sustained high liquidity, CBRE is revising its investment volume forecast upward to €15 billion, from the previously communicated €14.3 billion. This is conditional on the external environment not deteriorating.

Foreign capital returns, but bypasses residential

Foreign capital share still well below the peak years

Foreign investors accounted for approximately 31% of acquisition volume in the first half of 2026, compared to an average of 59% in the years 2016 to 2022. Excluding the Cofinimmo portfolio, that share falls further to 26%. In healthcare real estate (71%), logistics (60%), and offices (35%), however, the foreign share exceeds the historical average.

The retreat is sharpest in the residential market, with the share in existing stock falling from 50% to 16% and in new development from 32% to barely above 1%. This stands in contrast to the European trend, where international real estate investors regard residential as the most sought-after asset class.

Taxation and regulation are undermining competitiveness

The 10.4% transfer tax on non-residential properties, the abolition of the Fiscal Investment Institution (FII) regime, and successive rent regulation initiatives have eroded confidence in the Netherlands, weakening its competitive position. As a result, European investors are increasingly allocating capital elsewhere.

Of the transactions above €20 million, 27% are now structured as club deals: a collaborative arrangement between investors that avoids transfer tax liability. The higher rate is therefore generating not more, but less revenue for the government. A reduction would produce the opposite effect: more foreign capital, more transactions, and a net increase in tax receipts.

A lower transfer tax rate creates additional capacity for quality improvement

When a lower rate brings foreign capital back, the effects vary by sector. In the residential market, foreign capital, both direct and indirect, enables the construction of more new housing. In the office market, it accelerates the modernization and sustainability upgrading of existing stock, precisely where the need is greatest.

In the industrial and logistics sector, brown-to-green conversion gains scale, as foreign parties almost exclusively pursue this sustainability strategy. From the occupier side, demand is also growing for high-quality distribution centers built for automation.

Growing liquidity reflected in rising large-scale transactions

Top of the market picks up

Large transactions are the first to disappear in a downturn and the last to return. Transactions above €100 million accounted for 31% of volume, up from 28% in H1 2025, spread across eleven transactions; the highest count since H1 2022. The growing liquidity CBRE signaled at the start of this year has continued to materialize. The investment cycle is clearly entering a new phase, after years in which small-scale transactions dominated the market.

Liquidity is increasing, but selectivity remains

The increase in liquidity is most evident in the number of bids per process. The buyer pool in the core segment remains limited compared to peak years, however, which means most transactions are taking place in core-plus and value-add. In the office market, core capital is scarcest, partly because German open-ended funds are still processing outflows. In the residential market, by contrast, liquidity is present across the full risk curve, though buyers in the core segment are drawn primarily from the Dutch institutional market.

Acquisitions of listed investors contribute to volume growth in large transactions

At the European level, acquisitions such as Aedifica's takeover of Cofinimmo and WDP's acquisition of Ardan are driving investment volume growth in large transactions, with a substantial impact on both European and Dutch investment volumes. The potential acquisition of SEGRO by Prologis is expected to add further to this trend.

Capital value growth driven primarily by rental growth

Interest rate level keeps initial yields largely stable

The anticipated decline in government bond yields and the 5-year interest rate swap (IRS) rate did not materialize. Both moved higher, driven in part by pressure that the US-Iran conflict is placing on economies and long-term rates. On top of this, the ECB raised its policy rate in June 2026 for the first time since 2023. With the 10-year rate at approximately 3.2%, the risk-free return is higher than CBRE anticipated at the start of this year.

Across virtually all sectors, prime net initial yields remain at end-2024 levels. In logistics, the prime initial yield rose in July for the first time since April 2024, from 4.75% to 4.80%. Offices moved in the opposite direction in 2025, from 4.90% to 4.70%, but remained stable in H1 2026. That earlier compression was driven primarily by private investors and family offices capturing an increasingly large share of investment volume.

Financing costs rose despite tight lending margins

Although competition among lenders kept margins tight, all-in financing costs still increased in the first half of the year. This made acquisitions and refinancings more expensive, and partly explains why pricing did not move in line with the increased liquidity in the market.

Capital value growth in commercial real estate driven primarily by rental growth

Where rental income remained stable, capital values barely moved, in line with flat yield dynamics. The capital value growth that does exist is largely the result of rental growth. View prime capital value growth by sector on page 12 of the full report.

Ongoing polarization is expected to drive further rental growth. Prime high street retail also recorded rental growth of 6.5% in H1 2026. In logistics, rental growth remains limited for now due to high operational cost inflation and tight end-user margins, but market recovery and growing quality requirements are nonetheless expected to drive further polarization in rental levels.

Given elevated interest rate levels, net initial yields are expected to move largely sideways for the remainder of the year. Any capital value growth in H2 2026 will therefore come primarily from rental growth in supply-constrained markets or from optimization of existing stock.

Residential is the exception

For regulated mid-market rental housing, the initial yield is declining markedly, from 3.8% at end-2024 to 3.5%. This reflects the substantial volume of Dutch institutional capital pursuing an impact strategy focused on this segment.

Dutch institutional capital crucial to absorbing unit-by-unit sales activity

New development drives the market

Residential remains the largest sector in the investment market at €2.7 billion in H1 2026. The bulk of that capital is going into new development: €1.5 billion, against €1.2 billion in existing stock. Institutional investors are largely funding new development through the sale of existing assets to parties pursuing unit-by-unit disposition strategies.

This represents a reallocation of existing capital, not new inflows. Volume is, therefore, a poor indicator of the pipeline. Institutional parties have been acquiring fewer homes for years. As acquisitions and deliveries are typically two to four years apart, this is putting downward pressure on completions in 2027 and 2028.

Foreign investors are exiting

In existing rental housing, the foreign share has fallen from an average of 50% (2016–2022) to 16%, and in new development from 32% to barely 1%. The primary cause is fiscal. The abolition of the FII regime made the structures through which foreign parties held Dutch rental housing unattractive.

In addition, regulated rents under the Affordable Housing Act sit well below market rents, while healthcare, logistics, and offices offer market rents with indexation and a stronger total return. Amending that legislation will not bring the capital back. Without a fiscal alternative, liquidity in 2027 will continue to come primarily from Dutch institutional investors.

Unit-by-unit sales primarily impact regional markets

Unit-by-unit sales continue to dominate transactions involving existing assets: 87% in H1 2026, following 90% in 2024 and 69% in 2025. CBRE expects the peak around 2027. In the first half of 2026 alone, nearly 3,700 units changed hands under a unit-by-unit sale strategy. Nationally, these sell-offs and new development roughly balance each other out, but in many municipalities the net figure is negative.

Where institutional capital funded new development, that pipeline offsets the losses, with Amsterdam and Rotterdam at the top. Where that pipeline is absent, the rental stock has contracted. This was the case in Gouda, Arnhem, Groningen, and The Hague.

Among private investors, the unit-by-unit disposition effect is larger and concentrated in the major cities. This makes the picture for Amsterdam and Rotterdam look more favorable than for the broader rental market in those cities.

What this means for investors

The buyer pool is increasingly splitting into two distinct groups. New development is almost entirely the domain of Dutch institutional investors pursuing a core strategy, while existing complexes are going to family offices and private equity. Institutional investors are largely absent in this.

At the same time, value-add activity is very limited in both segments, whereas in logistics and offices it is the dominant strategy for foreign investors; brown-to-green being a clear example. The aging private rental stock is precisely where that approach is needed. Without that capital, upgrading and sustainability improvements in this segment will stall, even as the housing shortage persists.

Take-up recovers in H1 2026, driven by larger transactions

Take-up up 28%, large-scale transactions lead the way

Take-up reached 1.1 million sq m in the first half of 2026, up 28% compared to H1 2025, making it the strongest first half since 2023. The recovery in large-footprint transactions stands out in particular: the number of deals above 10,000 sq m rose from 31 to 43.

Relocations remain dominant

Net absorption lagged at 372,000 sq m, broadly unchanged from H1 2025 (366,000 sq m). The primary explanation is that the occupier market is being driven by relocations rather than expansion, with the exception of a number of pre-let developments. Occupiers are trading outdated buildings for modern, automation-ready space.

That said, 51% of occupiers in the European Logistics Occupier Survey 2026 expect to expand their European footprint within three years, the first increase since 2023. This points to growth in net absorption from 2027 onward. At the same time, supply of precisely the product they are seeking is shrinking, as the speculative pipeline is expected to contract in 2027. That combination is currently flattening vacancy growth, with a potential decline in 2027.

Investment volume on track despite new geopolitical shock

Investors deployed just over €1 billion in Dutch logistics and industrial real estate in H1 2026, up 5% year-on-year. This keeps the market on track for the €2.95 billion CBRE forecast at the start of this year.

The first half showed a clear parallel with 2025. Just as April's trade tariffs did last year, the US-Iran conflict briefly pushed the market into uncertainty. For the second half of the year, CBRE expects more activity, particularly in core investments. Total investment volume is therefore expected to come in at a similar or marginally lower level than in 2025.

Initial yields edge higher

The prime net initial yield for logistics real estate rose in July from 4.75% to 4.80%, marking the first movement since April 2024, albeit a very modest one. The cause lies on the financing side.

The ECB raised its policy rate in June, while capital market rates are running higher than CBRE anticipated at the start of this year. This is putting upward pressure on initial yields.

In Germany, that pressure was already visible earlier, but in the Netherlands this is the first and still very cautious move. The shift remains too small to break the pattern of stable pricing.

Private capital drives the office recovery

Volume accelerates, pricing stabilizes

Office investment volume reached €985 million in the first half of 2026. That is more than two-thirds above the prior year and the strongest first half since 2022.

Initial yields have not moved this year. In CBDs, capital values are consequently rising again, driven by rental growth. In the secondary segment, they remain stable despite increasing vacancy.

Private capital remains dominant

Private investors and family offices account for 41% of volume, French SCPIs for 36%, and institutional investors for 23%. Private investors in particular are pooling capital in club deals to avoid transfer tax, as this increases their firepower for larger assets.

Foreign capital is not absent, but it enters through private parties and funds. Private equity stayed on the sidelines in H1, however.

CBRE expects the capital base to broaden in the second half of 2026. With the ceiling of the rate path coming into view and pricing remaining stable, repositioning well-located but outdated offices is becoming attractive. That is the segment where private equity and value-add funds step in.

Scarcity, not weak demand

Take-up came in a quarter below H1 2025, but this is primarily a supply story. Many companies extended their leases to avoid high relocation and fit-out costs. Suitable modern space in the right location is also frequently unavailable. Those who do relocate are more often choosing fewer square meters of higher quality, though that space handback is leveling off as corporates increasingly expect employees in the office and occupancy rates rise.

In Amsterdam, vacancy held steady at 10.3%, while Rotterdam increased from 6.3% to 7.3%. At the same time, the new development pipeline is slowing: for 2028, less than half of the 2027 volume is currently under construction across the G5. This is intensifying scarcity in the top segment, pulling forward occupier decision-making and, in CBRE's view, setting the stage for further rental growth.

Rental growth determines returns

As long as rates remain elevated, value growth comes from rental growth; not from compressing initial yields. Prime rents on the Zuidas and in the CBDs of Rotterdam and Utrecht have risen by 6% to 8% per year over the past several years.

For the next three years, CBRE expects growth of 3% to 6% per year. Sustainability requirements and rising quality standards demand continuous investment from owners, making rental growth in the top segment essential to maintaining returns.

Highest retail share of investment volume since 2017

Trend reversal: rents on prime shopping streets rise again

Prime retail rents on Dutch high streets rose 6.5% in the first half of 2026, a break with four years of stagnation. On the Kalverstraat, rents increased from €2,500 to €2,600 per sq m; on Rotterdam's Lijnbaan from €1,350 to €1,500, a rise of 11%.

At the same time, the A1 zone is shrinking to just a handful of street sections. That is precisely where rental growth is concentrating. International retailers want to be in exactly these locations for branding and visibility, but supply there is extremely limited.

Purchasing power holding for now, but inflation is a risk for H2 2026

Higher motor fuel and energy prices pushed inflation up to 3.1% in July, from 2.9% in June. Consumer goods prices barely moved, however. Food, beverages, and tobacco recorded price growth of 0.0%.

In the second half of the year, inflation is expected to pick up in these categories as well, as higher energy and import costs feed through to consumer end prices with a lag. Rising inflation will consequently weigh on the purchasing power of Dutch households and hit retail sales volumes in particular.

Investment volume reaches 17% of market share

Investors acquired €1.2 billion in retail real estate in H1 2026, up nearly 30% year-on-year, the strongest first half in ten years. Retail now represents 17% of total Dutch investment volume, the highest share since 2017.

Large-scale convenience transactions were a significant contributor. These included Harbert's PULSE portfolios, comprising seven neighborhood and district centers, and retail park AaBe in Tilburg. Both transactions were strongly convenience-oriented.

Buyers focus on daily needs retail

Convenience-driven retail was the strongest driver of investment volume in H1 2026. Convenience-driven shopping centers, neighborhood centers, and supermarkets accounted for 60% of volume. Prime high streets remained limited to 17%, largely due to smaller transactions below €10 million.

The interest stems from solid purchasing power trends, limited stock growth, and long-term population growth. Investors have therefore long regarded this segment as a stable and sought-after category. For 2026 as a whole, CBRE expects total retail investment volume of approximately €1.7 billion. That is 13% above 2025, supported in part by constrained product availability.

The market in perspective

The Dutch real estate market recovered faster and more broadly in the first half of 2026 than anticipated. Liquidity is increasing, the buyer pool is broadening, and sentiment around financing is improving. At the same time, compressing initial yields are off the table: as long as rates remain elevated, returns come from rental growth, indexation, and optimization of existing stock. The principal risks lie outside the real estate market, in geopolitics and the interest rate path.