Logistics

By 2024, the investment market for logistics and industrial real estate will have recovered, but less than previously thought. Total investments in this sector rose to €3.1 billion, significantly more than the €2.4 billion in the previous year. Investments in logistics real estate increased by 74%, partly due to a rebound in large portfolio deals. At the same time, there was a lot of interest in the light industrial segment last year. The result: another growing level of investment within the industrial and logistics real estate sector. For 2025, CBRE expects a similar volume of €3.1 billion, mainly driven by large portfolio deals.

Trends and developments

• In 2024, there was again more activity in the core segment compared to 2023 – albeit still limited to a few transactions. The caveat is that this product must meet all requirements before buyers show interest. In addition, the low activity in the core segment is also driven by an increasingly limited supply of core products due to a persistent shortage of green and brownfields in prime locations. Although supply will remain scarce in 2025, upcoming interest rate cuts may lead to more alignment between buyer and seller in terms of pricing.
  
  
• This year, most transactions took place in the core plus and value add segment. The opportunistic and venture capital that has been raised in recent years is increasingly focusing on this segment. The higher returns that core plus and value add products can deliver play a significant role in this shift – especially given the rental growth that has taken place in prime locations. CBRE therefore expects these buyers to remain dominant in the investment volume in 2025.
  
  
• Interest in light industrial and urban logistics continues to grow, especially among institutional investors. They mainly focus on properties that require CapEx from a value growth perspective. This type of product is particularly interesting in urban areas, where the available space is becoming increasingly limited and the greatest potential for rental growth lies. In addition, last mile plays a significant role. The increasing population density in and around the cities is leading to an increased demand for on-time deliveries. CBRE expects the buyers’ investment activity in this segment to increase further as larger portfolios come to market.
  
  
• In 2024, there was a notable increase in activity in portfolio and platform deals, mainly by larger private equity parties. This is in sharp contrast to 2023, in which few of these deals took place. CBRE therefore expects a further increase in the number of portfolio deals in 2025 and 2026, both at local and pan-European level. This increase is largely due to the recovery of the investment market and the large amount of capital available for logistics investments. In addition, we expect the holding period of some larger (Dutch) portfolios to end. As a result, more products will come onto the market in 2025 that fit the scale requirements of parties in the market.

Analysis logistics

The fall in interest rates can significantly increase the attractiveness of core investments. Once there is a new balance between the price expectations of buyers and sellers, investors will be encouraged to actively participate in the market again. But if the occupier market does not recover, investors will continue to look for stabilised products rather than core plus or value-add products. The user market is expected to get back on track in the second half of 2025 at the earliest.

Core investments are highly dependent on the development of government bond yields. This is even more the case for the logistics real estate sector than for other sectors, due to its more direct link to economic activity. In addition to the obvious lower financing costs, lower interest rates also stimulate economic activity, which increases demand for logistics services and infrastructure. The logistics sector directly benefits from the increase in e-commerce and the need for efficient distribution networks. This creates a favourable environment for core investments.

At the end of 2024, we saw a more positive sentiment towards core products. That will continue to increase this year, but will only really recover from 2026 onwards.