March 31, 2016

Commercial loan maturities are expected to surpass $400 billion annually in 2016 and 2017—some $100 billion more per year than 2015 maturities. This so-called “Wall of Maturities” has been a hot topic of conversation in commercial real estate finance.

In this Viewpoint, we characterize the scope of the issue, identify where potential refinancing demands are greatest, and how well recent CMBS loan maturities have fared. While we believe that ample availability of capital will support refinancing in 2016, there are some concerns that the lower credit quality of 2017 maturities may pose some challenges, especially under a higher mortgage rate environment.